Went out to the garage with new stator in hand, and on impulse brought the action camera with me: I decided I'd make a video and post it on YouTube just for yucks.
The video will (once I've edited it and posted it) will cover disassembly, replacement of the stator, and reassembly, all of which went well.
Shut the camera off, started the bike...STILL NOT CHARGING.
Did an unloaded test of stator; I am now getting about 40v at idle and when I rev her to 5,000 RPM the volts go where they need to, so the new stator is confirmed good.
So I dug into the wiring harness. Checked continuity on all wires going to and from the regulator/rectifier (R/R). All wiring good.
Sighing, pulled off the R/R and sat at the bench with the manual. To avoid confusion, I reversed the test leads (+ to black, - to red) so the chart would match what I'm doing with the test leads. Put the DMM into diode check mode and went to town.
After a few moments, noticed something weird: the white/blue wire reported 0V. In diode check, the meter tells you what the forward bias voltage of the diode is, but in that mode the resistors that link W/B to R won't show any reading, so I switched to ohms and still saw zero resistance. Damned little, anyway, about 0.2 ohms. I'd expect it to be more than that.
Filing that away, proceeded with the rest of the checks. All other circuits said about 0.54v, which is about right for a high-current diode.
Went to the "no continuity" chart and ran through the permutations...and wouldn't you know it, W/B failed that test? It showed continuity where there should be none. All the other wires passed but that one--and that one failure is enough to demonstrate to my satisfaction that the R/R module has failed. I'd bet money that the zero resistance on that line is a symptom.
Fine, then. I went and got the other one out and checked it...and it failed too! The yellow wire failed its "no continuity" check, meaning that R/R is also no damned good whatsoever. The W/B wire on that module showed 0.54 just as the others did, but yellow was no good.
Do you know how likely it is to have three failed components in a single incident? Or even two?
In all probability, something went bad, and took something else with it. That's a lot more likely than a simultaneous failure of two different parts.
Anyway, now I've got to find an R/R for the bike. That shouldn't cost as much as the stator did, but it does mean I am not riding my motorcycle today, or even (probably) this week.