In the first season of Babylon 5 we are treated to an ever-worsening political situation in the Earth Alliance. Commander Sinclair, on Babylon 5, is having a conversation with his superior officer about an organization called "Night Watch" which--it develops--is essentially the nazi brownshirts. Security personnel can sign up voluntarily (at first), wear an armband, get a few extra credits per shift, all for doing what they normally do.
Only after a little while, being in the Night Watch becomes mandatory. And pretty soon the station's security chief (Micahel Garibaldi) is out on his ear because he won't join it, and his second-in-command Zack gets his job...reluctantly.
Sinclair's senior officer is telling Sinclair that this is how it is, now, and that regardless of anything else he has to follow the chain of command. Sinclair is disgusted because he can't get permission to kick out the Night Watch, and he's fuming about it to his second in command Susan Ivanova...and then he realizes something, something very important, that his boss was telling him without saying it verbatim.
"Follow the chain of command." The point was that the Night Watch was not in the chain of command, and thus had no authority to order anyone on the station to do anything. Sinclair, realizing this, is able to rein in the fuckers and restore sanity to his station, just in time for the end credits.
So when I read the letter embedded in that post, I kind of get the same vibe from it that I get from that scene in B5. It feels like the commanders are saying something entirely different from what their actual words say.
"We support and defend the Constitution. Any act to disrupt the Constitutional process is not only against our traditions, values, and oath; it is against the law."
That couplet is in the middle of a paragraph that follows a paragraph talking about the events of 1/6. It precedes a paragraph discussing what will happen on the 20th "in accordance with the Constitution". But what it does not say is WHICH ACT TO DISRUPT THE CONSTITUTION they're talking about.
Now, given the following paragraph about Biden being inaugurated, it looks like they're saying that they're going to stand with Biden and the deep state etcetera. And they may be saying that--but they may not be.
Let's face it: everyone in the country knows that election was stolen, these military leaders included. By definition, stealing the presidential election is a disruption of a Constitutional process. And for all we know, the military may be gearing up to "protect and defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic".
I don't know what's going to happen next Wednesday. I only know that I have to be at work that day, to watch a technician from the ISP move a cable from one device to another. But if my cell phone starts yodeling madly with emergency broadcast system messages, I'm going to have a real strong preference for going home immediately.
This post from Intrepid Reporter discusses the logistics of deploying 20,000 troops. He lists who is there, and the list includes a fighter squadron, F-16s. We're told that those troops are there to prevent "insurrection"; do they expect the insurrectionists to have a squadron of MIGs or something? Why do they need air-to-air capable planes for riots?
I'm hearing there are now five brigades of national guard in DC, 25,000 soldiers. That's a stupendous, unprecedented number. I'm wondering if there have ever been that many troops in DC, even during the Civil War?
Anyway he runs some numbers. Something like 25 million rounds of ammo for five days' worth of combat ops. 20,000 troops eat 60,000 meals per day. He's wondering where all this is being stored: "Not even sure if there's an Ammo Holding Area Capable of supplying that amount of shit for the Army."
I wonder that, too, come to think of it. Because if it's being trucked in? Bad guys interdict your supply lines and you are SCREWED. People start dropping from hunger after two days, maybe three; let's be generous and say these guys manage to go a week before they start foraging. Since DC is a city, the "forage" is the larders and pantries of people who live in DC. An army marches on its stomach, for fuck's sake.
He further goes on to say that they're planning to repair broken equipment on site rather than send it to the depot for repair. And that leads him to think that they're expecting serious combat.
And I recall that link I had, about Nanci Pelosi calling up the commander of the Marines and asking for a brigade to help out the national guard.
Let's face it: the National Guard are soldiers, but they're not regulars. Regulars are the guys who do it every day, every week, every month, every year. National Guard don't do the military thing 24/7; they have regular civilian jobs and do training on some weekends, and a couple a weeks per year they go to a facility and spend time there on more intensive training than they can get over a couple days. I'm not talking down the National Guard, here; they are indeed soldiers, and a vital part of America's armed forces, and defense strategy.
But you don't hear about the National Guard Rangers or Seals, or Recon, or whatever. They don't really have an elite corps because they're mostly part-timers. And it's fairly common that when they get deployed to a combat zone, NG is there to support the regulars, not to do any actual serious fighting. Which kind of sucks for them because support people have just as much a chance of dying in combat as the hardcore soldiers do. Some NG do get deployed to fight, though.
For the most part, though, when you're talking about calling up the National Guard for a deployment within the US, you're talking about disaster relief or riot control or half a dozen other missions for which the Army and Marines would be serious overkill, and possibly counterproductive. So, a brigade of Marines on top of at least four, probably five brigades of National Guard?
One commentor says, "Team Bubba can't field anything that would warrant that kind of defense." ("Team Bubba" being the colorful military phrase for "American insurgents", I assume.) He's right about that.
All this adds up to the fact that the Democrats are scared, that they believe that something is going to happen on inauguration day, something so terrible that four brigades is simply not enough army to protect them from whatever they expect is coming.
From all this, then, I've come up with a theory.
Biden is sworn in as president. I'm not a constitutional scholar and I know very little about all this, but I've heard theories that once Biden is sworn in, instead of just being "electoral fraud"--which is a civilian matter--the crime becomes treason, and the military is honor bound to act.
Biden is sworn in and the military swoops in to arrest him. Trump is no longer President, but due to an interesting little tradition or law or something, Biden is not yet Commander in Chief in anything other than name. I've heard tell that the outgoing President must formally transfer command to the incoming one. This makes sense; in the military, commands are always transferred by the outgoing officer formally relinquishing his command to the incoming one--at least at higher levels. Biden cannot order the military to stand down--not that he won't try--and so the military arrests Biden and Harris for treason, and several others besides, all over DC.
Because the president and vice president (and probably a good number of legislators and possibly judges) are in jail, we really need a president, so guess who gets the nod? Biden's cabinet has not been nominated and confirmed yet, so constitutionally none of them is in the line of succession. Trump and Pence are no longer President and vice president. Who does that leave? The sitting Secretary of State is the next in line of succession, and that would be Mike Pompeo.
Prior to all this, the Democrats are thinking something like this will happen, so they're desperately trying to get some kind of military force in place, and all they can do is to get the National Guard. They want Army and Marines, but the commanders of the regular forces say, "Um, no, that's sedition and maybe treason, have a nice day." I'll bet money that the people commanding those brigades of NG are telling the Democrat leadership, "This is a really, REALLY BAD IDEA," but of course the politicians aren't listening. Armies fight battles, and this is a necessary battle, so fight it already! Ignoring, of course, the fact that the NG brigades are not (probably, we think) being supplied well enough for continued combat operations that last longer than a day or two, particularly if the attacking force takes supply line interdiction seriously...which they will. I bet the NG commanders are screaming this to anyone who will listen, only no one will.
Highways and bridges and rail lines--anything that can pass a vehicle bigger than a Smart Car--will be blown up pretty quickly. That, in this admitted amateur's position, is what those F-16s are there to prevent.
Tell me: does the NG have gear that can detect F-35s or F-111s? Because if they don't, I suspect those F-16s are only there to make Nancy Pelosi feel better.
The Predator drones, however, are there to hit people with Hellfire missiles. I'm sure some of the targets will include prominent republicans. And "fog of war" will help the Democrats blame the "insurrectionists" and "domestic terrorists" for those deaths. I won't believe it.
* * *
Let's face the facts, here: what we are looking at here is a for-real civil war. Not a "war between the states", not a federal government trying to prevent the secession of some states from the federation of states called "The United States", but an actual fight for who is in control of the country.
If you are not scared, you are not paying attention.
I'll tell you what: I am scared. I have never been this frightened in my life. I cling to the hope that Trump has a plan because it beats the alternative, which is a good half-decade of fighting (at least!) which leads to all of us embracing the suck of general and widespread strife, and everything that comes with it.
...which is why I stopped worrying about my waistline. I'm fat, but I don't think I'll stay fat, so I'm eating candy and carbs and whatever the hell I want to eat, as much as I want...because I may need that fat in the next year. Going to half rations or quarter rations may be necessary; I don't want to starve to death.
If Biden is sworn in, the United States will probably be a socialist dictatorship for the rest of my life. I'm middle-aged, so under the best of circumstances I can't expect more than thirty or forty more years. But in a totalitarianist and socialist United States, I won't even last that long. Medical care standards will crater, food supply will crater, energy supply will crater--and as a member of the proletariat I will be the face under the stomping boot; and even my best life expectancy under those circumstances drops precipitously if I am unpersoned or sent to a gulag.
So let's look over the possibilities.
1) Biden is sworn in and it's business as usual, just as it has been for the last couple of hundred years.
I'd like to believe that. If I thought that was possible, I wouldn't be this scared. I'd be annoyed, like I was when Bill Clinton won, but not afraid. But the election was obviously stolen and the left has made no secret of its plans to crush the right wing, so I cannot accept that "business as usual and we'll get 'em in 2022!" is likely. So,
2) Biden is sworn in and we rapidly descend into socialism. If nothing is done to stop him, we don't have civil war, but we also lose all our freedoms, sooner rather than later. Read 1984 to learn why that's an awful option. If the Democrats are not stopped, we are all fucked, permanently.
3) The scenario I outlined above, where the military swoops in. This is probably a couple of weeks' worth of civil war. I don't think the NG can put up a serious opposition to the regular troops. The outcome of this depends on the loyalties of the troops, which is not a sure thing; there are a hell of a lot of leftists in the upper echelons.
This is better than 1 or 2 but it is still bad, because we're going to have periods of no power, and all communications will be severely curtailed. I'd bet money on being out of work for weeks, and going similar periods without being able to buy groceries. There will be severe dislocations all over the place.
4) Trump crosses the Rubicon. I don't know what form that takes, but it's also really bad, though less bad than 3. I can't really say why--it's just the impression I have--but the left won't accept it, which means the armed forces have to quell leftist insurrections everywhere. See above, "severe dislocations". (The left won't accept 3 either, anyway.)
5) Realizing what they're doing to the nation, the Democrats back away and cede the election to Trump and all returns to how it was on November 2, 2020. I'm including this only for the sake of completeness; this will not happen.
There are probably five dozen minor variations on these. I'm not going to cover every contingency. The problem is, out of the four alternatives that are actually possible in our reality, none of them is any damned good at all. Because out of all the wars there are, "civil wars" are the least civil.
* * *
Do you know what's funny?
This is exactly the kind of situation I was writing about in the first book of Apocalyptic Visions. In that story, the sitting executive of the government seizes power that is not constitutionally his, and an armed force comes to throw him out of office. And so there's a battle in the capital city.
"Civil wars aren't," the head of Earth Defense Force says, many times over the course of that thing's 475 pages.
Writing that story led me to think about a lot of the issues that are cropping up now, in the real world, before they did, so I feel like I have a little bit of...not experience, but learning, about it. The problem is, the characters in the story are people who can do something about it; I'm just this one guy with no real resources that can possibly alter the course of a socialist revolution.
I said that if Biden is sworn in and remains President, and the country goes communist, that the Fungus goes dark. I don't know what I'll do if a civil war starts.
Guess I'll play that one by ear.
But writing that story, I had to think about logistics and strategy and all things military; and I like to flatter myself and think it gave me just a little bit of insight about this kind of thing. A lot of what we are being told doesn't add up--and I'd expect that, given the circumstances. I mean, when you're preparing for a battle, you don't email your plans to the enemy; and in fact you spread as much disinformation around as you can. Trump knows this; he's a student of Sun Tzu and his first term in office demonstrates that he understands strategy to a very high degree. That's why we have the "wait 48 hours" rule about the negative revelations that came out about him--they all turned out to be crap, and some of them were deliberate crap put out by Trump himself solely to throw the Democrat Media Complex (DMC) out of equilibrium.
By comparison, the disinformation from the DMC is clumsy at best. They rely on pretending that another interpretation is impossible, so the people who entered the Capitol were violent insurgents (who somehow didn't damage anything inside the building and walked between the velvet ropes!) and Trump is a dangerous fascist and we absolutely cannot wait for the 20th. The four brigades--with air-to-air support!--in DC are merely a sensible precaution to ensure that insurrectionists don't disrupt the inauguration...which isn't even taking place in public. The election was not rigged and vote fraud is rare. Etcetera. If they don't cover it, it didn't happen, so who are you going to believe, prole? Having been raised on deconstructionism they honestly believe that they create the narrative, and that there is no objective reality. They are greatly and obviously terrified of something, but we don't know what that is. (Why was Pelosi so worried about the nuclear codes?)
Yet there's a very real chance that the communists win this.
None of this accounts for what the rest of the world will do, of course. I don't have the qualifications or information even to form a half-assed guess about the international strategy at work here. There's a worst-case scenario involving a Chinese takeover of the US that I don't even want to think about, because the Chinese communist party will look at the newly subjugated Americans as nothing but grist for the mill. And communism always demands a mountain of skulls.
...and so, as I said above, I cling to the hope that there is something in the works which will prevent it, or at least the very worst of it. A few weeks or months of martial law followed by new "in person and show a government-issued photo ID" elections, and then we go back to how things more or less were before all this, except that all the corrupt bastards go to jail or get executed, and we have honest and good government for the first time since God knows when...'tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.
I don't know. I feel like there is a plan, and there's a sense that we're not in the danger that I think we're in (I would be so very happy to be 100% wrong about all this) but I am prone to wishful thinking. Even so, when I look at the bits and pieces I've gleaned from a number of sources, I can't articulate it at all, and I can't possibly defend it, but it all adds up to a cautious optimism.
And I'll take it. If I'm wrong, there will be plenty of time to be unhappy about it, because the Democrats will give us a lot to be unhappy about; but for the time being, at least I can be content in my preparations and hope they're too much for what's actually coming.
* * *
Then I think about my nieces and nephews.
The oldest niece, the one from Maine, I know she voted for socialism. If she gets what she voted for, I don't think she's going to like it quite as much as she thought she would.
Mom took a look at a family gathering at my brother's place once, looked at all the boys, and said, "There's going to be a war." It was an ominous prediction; but now those boys are young men of military service age, and we sure as hell are staring down the barrels of a shooting war.
An examination of how our society got here is beyond the scope of this document, of course, but holy shit did my generation make a royal fucking mess of things. Our parents handed us the keys to a robust, technologically advanced nation, and in four decades, we drove the thing into a ditch. Even if we manage to get out of that ditch, we're still faced with a lot of work to get back on the road. And that work is going to fall to my generation's children and grandchildren.
Any wonder millennials look at boomers with contempt?
* * *
This whole thing has been an emotional roller coaster. I feel great one day and down the next. It's stressful and I hate it. And for the rest of my life, I'm going to blame all the sitting politicians who could have stopped it, just by demonstrating that they had a single gram of integrity. Not Trump--he's the victim--but all the senators and represtentatives, on both sides, and the shitheads on the Supreme Court (except Clarence Thomas).
* * *
The watchwords are Faith! Courage! It is not over until it's over; and the fact that the DMC is shitting its pants in fear is encouraging to me, because it means they are not as sure of their victory as they pretend to be. They can still be stopped, if everything goes right; and if they are stopped, it will be the most glorious moment in human history with the exceptions only of Jesus' birth, and his resurrection.
But if you look at folklore, sometimes the monster can only be truly stopped if it is killed during its becoming, when it is on the verge of achieving permanent existence in this world. I think that's the case here; that if Biden is allowed to be sworn in as president, then the next step will eradicate leftism from our government for a generation, and give us a chance to rebuild the God-fearing republic that our nation once was. I like to think that's why they are so frightened; that if they lose this, they're done for a long time.
That is why I say "Faith! Courage!" Because it takes faith to believe that's possible, and it takes courage to make it happen, in however small a fashion we can contribute to that outcome. Maybe all I can do is pray, but I know that's some help.
And that will do.