atomic_fungus (atomic_fungus) wrote,
atomic_fungus
atomic_fungus

#2824: Svensmark hypothesis might be true.

"It does seem like the CERN experiment verified much of the Svenmark hypothesis." Said hypothesis being a serious causal link between solar activity and cloud formation, thus demonstrating that climate change is driven by the sun.

When the sun is highly active, and has a strong magnetic field, earth is better protected from cosmic rays than when the sun is inactive and has a weak magnetic field. As cosmic rays enter earth's atmosphere, they end up seeding cloud formation. (Much the same way a charged particle leaves a trail when entering a cloud chamber.)

More clouds, particularly at high altitudes, means less solar radiation getting to the earth's surface. This means a cooling climate.

Fewer clouds--more heat--warming climate. See?

Climate models don't control for clouds; they can't. We don't understand enough about how they work. The models simply use a static number for albedo (reflectivity of the earth) and another static number for atmospheric heat absorption due to water vapor. "Albedo averages to X," says the guy writing the program, "and the average of heat exchange due to the presence of water vapor is Y. Yep! Human carbon emissions are what's doing it!"

I said "heat exchange" because--far from being a static phenomenon--clouds are heat engines, particularly when they're emitting precipitation. Take your typical thunderstorm: it's got hot parts and cool parts, circulating air, falling precipitation, lightning--a lot of things are going on! It's a highly dynamic environment, and we think we have a good understanding of how they work now that we've been watching them with pretty sophisticated instruments for the past fifty years.

But even a harmless, cottony cumulus cloud is a heat engine. There is air circulating inside them--they would not be puffy if it weren't--because they have warm and cool sides. The presence of the cloud changes how much solar radiation strikes the earth's surface. Some of the heat that would get to the ground instead reflects off the puffy top and goes back into space. Some is absorbed and reradiated into the surrounding air. Some passes through.

This dynamic, complex environment doesn't remain in one place; it moves with the wind. Depending on whether its shadow falls on land or water changes the dynamics of its interaction with its environment. It might be the only one in the sky, or there might be hundreds of them. There could be layers and layers of clouds, each with its own characteristics and dynamics, all different because their structures are different.

All of this is averaged to one number by the climate models.

It's like having a racing simulation where all you have to do is turn the steering wheel at the right moment every time and you'll win the game. It doesn't matter which way you turn the wheel, nor by how much, and there are no controls for throttle or brake; just turn the wheel at the right instant every time you approach a curve, and you'll win.

* * *

You know, I'm not even getting into the "gag order" because that's just typical of the warmista crowd. Global warming is "proven" and nothing must ever challenge it.

...back when I was in grade school, the scientific method was taught fairly early on by giving examples of how it's supposed to be used. It was contrasted with things like the flat earth theory and the earth-centric model of the universe and so on, and then went on to show how--before the scientific method came into its own--how people would all band together and refuse to listen to new ideas.

Interestingly enough, though, that's exactly where science is now. Scientists aren't interested in finding out the correct facts any longer; they're much more interested in protecting their hegemony. Global warming has built up an entire industry around itself--not just fat government grants and comfortably tenured professorships, but now there are industries dedicated to alleviating the effects of human carbon emissions.

Global warming isn't the only place you see this, though. AIDS research, for example--the very guy who discovered retroviruses is persona non grata in the AIDS research community because he raised doubts about HIV being the cause of AIDS.

See, no one's seen a live example of HIV. What we've seen are fragments of a virus, things that have the right pieces to be a retrovirus that should resemble HIV. But researchers treat this issue as solved, and no one--absolutely no one!--is allowed to consider the question, "Are we sure this is right?" Same as with global warming, the premise must not be questioned, ever, because it's proven.

"There's no need to ask that question! We know this to be true, so it'd just be a waste of everyone's time and money for us to do any further experiments to confirm it!"

Here's the interesting thing: you might be surprised to know that physicists are still doing experiments to confirm the law of gravitation.

These physicists don't expect the law of gravitation to be repealed by their experiments. What they are doing is measuring the gravitational constant, G, to ever-higher levels of accuracy. They're poring over the data with a fine-toothed comb intent on discovering inconsistencies that might lurk in the tiniest of variations.

They do these things because they're interested in what else might be there that we don't know.

If something comes out of their experiments--and it turns otu not to be instrument or operator error--then it means that our model of gravitation is not quite correct...and that could mean the world.

No one is standing around and saying to these guys, "Well, we already know what G is, and we understand how gravity works, and you shouldn't waste your time on this. If you really want to contribute to physics, you should go work on string theory like the rest of us!"

...but that's exactly what the gatekeepers in other fields are doing to people who want to check the results. Is global warming happening, and if so, is it because of human activity? Is AIDS caused by HIV, or did someone make a mistake?

You only prevent people from asking such questions if you're afraid of what they'll find out.

* * *

Also from Ace of Spades: "Why are we not forcing Obama and the media to explain how this travesty continues?"

Job creation stalled with the passage of ObamaCare. It dropped by an order of magnitude after ObamaCare was signed into law.

("An order of magnitude" is a factor of ten, by the way, for those of you who don't know that.)

Plenty of people predicted this. You make it more expensive and complex (but I repeat myself) to employ people, and you'll put a bullet in the head of job creation.

Obama doesn't care. He's rich; even if he was ousted from office tomorrow--even in such a way that he didn't keep his pension--he'd remain among the top five percent of the wealthy for the rest of his life.

(Unless Michelle went into the cell next to him; that might drop him out of that rarified territory.)

The Democrats in Congress don't care, either, for the same reason: they're rich. They'll never have to get up at the break of dawn and go dig ditches in sweltering heat (not unless we make them) in order to earn money to stay alive; like all politicians they'll cling to the reins of power as long as possible and then retire to a life of pampered luxury.

Complain when the air conditioning in the office is set too high, you know, and get disgusted when the valet takes thirty seconds too long to bring the car around. This is the kind of "hardship" and "privation" they face if they lose their jobs. Yeah.

I'M WITH YOU, RAT!



* * *

The funny thing about this entire series of strips (which you can read here) is how Stephen Pastis, the creator of Pearls Before Swine, writes himself into the story.

He does this all the time, having Rat walk on his desk and insult him, or other fun things; and it's a funny little story to have him get arrested when his cartoon character advocates revolution.

"Funny", yes.

...but that's the beauty of America: FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION. I'm not going to jail because I think Rat's not far off the mark and say so in a public place. And obviously Pastis himself wouldn't have written this if he thought there was any chance whatsoever of him being arrested for it.

* * *

The high temperature for Wednesday was 103°.

...that's just too damn hot. I don't care where you are; that's ludicrous.

I was talking about cutting the grass this past Friday, but I haven't done it yet; we haven't had any rain and the grass is not growing. It looks a little shaggy, and the clover is popping up, but the grass isn't growing. In fact, it's starting to turn brown in spots.

So the last time I cut the grass was Sunday the 10th. It's been 11 days since I last cut it--but why bother when it's not growing? (And my neighbor to the south hasn't cut his, either.)

Monday it's supposed to be a more reasonable temperature outside; I'll probably try to get it cut then. But I'm not about to try to do any yard work when it's so stinkinous hot outside that when I step out into a night that's 83° and humid, it feels cool.

* * *

I've been reading the Haruhi books on the Aluratek. I'm to volume seven now, and I'm starting to wonder if any of these other stories will be animated, or what?

The entirety of the anime is collected in five of the eight books, and really not even the entirety of the fifth book made it into animation. Books 1-4 are all animated, and book 5 is partly so. From there on, it's all new to me.

All of it ought to be animated. All of it. It might be that someone's going to make movies of the subsequent stories, which is not bad, but I'd prefer more TV series.

Oh well; it's not up to me.

* * *

Dinner was General Tao's Chicken again. I just did not want to cook; and in fact after eating dinner I fell asleep. This was after napping this afternoon.

I'd like to blame the weather for this, if I may.
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