This state is dicks.
...incidentally, I'm glad we're finally getting around to having our primary. I'm sick of the stupid robocalls from the "vote for Romney!" and the "vote for anyone BUT Romney!" camps. I'm sick of all the spam in my mailbox from various campaigns.
Let me tell you, right now, what's going to happen:
1) Romney gets the nomination.
The GOP leadership is behind Romney, no ifs, ands, or buts. Romney is the frontrunner because "it's his turn", exactly the same way it was McCain's "turn" in 2008. I have an idea: let's abandon this idiotic pursuit of "electability" based on what the elite insiders think. And at the same time, abandon this notion that we have to let longtime insiders "have their shot" because they played nice in prior elections.
You lost the nomination last time? Too f-ing bad, pal. That was "your shot" at the thing. Go find something else to do.
2) The press--which has been pro-Romney until now--turns nasty.
In 2008, the press did this with McCain, exactly the way a lot of the true conservative punditry predicted it would. It was not a difficult prediction to make since the press does this every damned time. Limbaugh asserts--correctly--"They'll tell us who they're afraid of!" And they're not afraid of Romney.
And so, once the primaries are over, the long knives will come out and the press will start running all the negative stuff they've been saving up. Whatever peak of popularity Romney achieves will deline precipitously once the convention is over.
3) Obama may win a second term.
I can't say this definitively for only one reason: the economy. Look, I know the BLS is going to game the numbers to get the unemployment rate under 8% by November. I can see that coming as easily as I can see the sun rising; it's as predictable as the tides and the mechanism by which it will happen is a lot more easily understood.
But--contrary to the insistence of the press from 2001 through 2008--the President has little control over the spot price of gasoline. All the President can do is affect the trend--Obama's anti-energy policies have not helped him one whit in this regard; everything he's done has led to gas flirting with $5 per gallon.
Obama's reelection hinges on two factors, only one of which he has any serious control over.
The first is, of course, the economy. Everything he's done has been anti-business, and anti-economy, and it's just pure luck that those chickens are coming home to roost in an election year. Despite the BLS fudging I think most people understand that the economy is utter shit right now and I'm willing to bet that a good chunk of them understand that it is no longer Bush's fault. That's why the Democrat party is trying to change the subjet and convince people that the GOP wants to ban contraception. 1992: "It's the economy, stupid." 20 years later, "It's the birth control, stupid."
The second is Democrat vote fraud.
Obama himself naturally has no direct control over this. Party hacks, people whose names are known only to themselves and their spouses, run this operation. It's why each and every attempt at "Voter ID" laws are fought bitterly by the Democrat party: if people have to show their government-issued photo IDs to vote, "vote early, vote often" becomes a hell of a lot harder to manage.
The Democrats don't give a rat's ass about "racism" but they do care about getting as many people into the polls to vote for them as possible--and that includes illegal aliens, convicted felons, ACORN activists, and corpses. You can't do that if people have to show their driver's licenses to the poll judge; the massive ID fraud required to pull that off would be both obvious and traceable, and we can't have that.
Certain places will go Obama, with or without help. Illinois, for example. Regardless of actual votes cast, the Chicago machine will put Illinois firmly on Obama's side.
But here's the kicker: depending on the economy, vote fraud may or may not work. If it's a close election I expect vote fraud to put Obama over the top, though, and I don't expect Romney to be much of a challenge for Obama.
See above, "they'll tell us who they're afraid of". They're not afraid of Romney; and why should they be? Romney is Obama; the average GOP voter is likely not to know this, but don't worry: the press will be certain to tell us all about it every night following the convention--RomneyCare, gay marriage, massive infringement of gun rights, basically his entire record as governor of Massachusetts. The idea will be to suppress the GOP vote, get them uninterested in supporting Romney.
Wasted effort, in my case. As previously stated I WILL NOT VOTE FOR ROMNEY. I think I'd rather have Obama in the White House for the next four years. Maybe in 2016 the GOP will front someone who's actually, y'know, a Republican. Instead of "Democrat by another name".
...so the vote comes down to economics, vote fraud...and how much the GOP establishment can scare the GOP rank-and-file. "Obama will take your guns! Obama will take your freedom! Obama will tax you to death! Obama will...!"
And my answer is, "What will Romney do different? Everything you say Obama will do, Romney has done!"
And I am not voting for that.